Energy modellers should explore extremes more systematically in scenarios

Authors: McCollum, D.L., A. Gambhir, J. Rogelj and Wilson, C.

Published in:  Nature Energy volume 5, pages104–107 (2020)

Date Published: 17 February 2020


Scenarios are the primary tool for examining how current decisions shape the future, but the future is affected as much by out-of-ordinary extremes as by generally expected trends. Energy modellers can study extremes both by incorporating them directly within models and by using complementary off-model analyses.

Insights for EnergyREV:

Future energy scenario modelling tends to concentrate on large system-wide solutions to climate change and other challenges. The potential contribution of local energy systems should be more thoroughly explored.